Typical Thru Hiker Gear

The Appalachian Trail (AT) is about 2,200 miles long stretching from Springer Mountain in Georgia to Mt. Katahdin in Maine.  Every year, around 1,000 intrepid souls hike the whole thing from beginning to end.  Those going from GA to ME are considered NOBOs (Northbound) while those starting in ME are SOBOs (Southbound).  These Thru-Hikers know better than anyone what works and what doesn't on long backpacking trips.  Wouldn't it be great if they could be surveyed to find out which gear the most of them depend on.

Mariposa from The Trek has come to our rescue and is a thru hiker herself.  Every year she pours over the annual ThruHiker survey from TheTrek and compiles the data into a series of informative, interesting, and useful posts.  If you are planning a trip or shopping for gear, please do yourself a favor and check them out.  You may not be planning a multi-state trip, but if you plan to go for more than two nights or plan lots of little trips, you will find her posts worth a read.  While her posts go into lots of awesome details, I wanted to use this space as a summary with links to her posts for the deep dive.

Note that there are a lot of choices in each category which meant that "most popular" may have been something that was barely double digits percentage wise.  In most cases, this tells you more about the general features desired than the actual model selected since 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place were usually very similar items.

Favorite Gear From The 2019 Survey

Backpack
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/top-backpacks-2019-appalachian-trail-thru-hiker-survey/

Thru-hikers packs had an average (mean) capacity of 52 liters, but anything between about 43 and 61 liters was common. Thru-hiker pack capacities ranged from 25 to 80 liters.  The average capacity of section hikers’ packs was 48 liters, and anything from 40 to 60 liters was common. Their packs ranged in capacity from 6.5 liters to 70 liters.  If liter measurements are not meaningful to you, this link may help.

The most popular brand (used by 38%) was Osprey with its Exos model (used by 10%) being the most popular on the trail.  The Exos medium size is 58 liters, weighs 2 lbs. 11 oz, and retails for $220 at REI.

Tent
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/2019-appalachian-trail-thru-hiker-survey-top-tents-shelters/
87% of respondents used a tent, 11% used a hammock, with the reminder using tarps, bivy sacks, or lean tos.  Two person tents were the most common. The most popular brand was Big Agnes in general, but the most popular tent was the Zpacks Duplex (used by 16%) which is a "pole-tent" requiring two trekking poles (not included) for support.  The Duplex weighs 1 lb, 3 oz, and retails for $599 on the Zpacks site.  If trekking poles are not your thing, a freestanding kit is available for $125 (and another 10 oz).

Honorable mention goes to the Big Agnes Fly Creek UL 2 (used by 8%) which is a standard freestanding tent. It weighs just under 2 pounds and retails for $349.95 at REI.

Stove
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/top-stoves-and-filters-the-2019-appalachian-trail-thru-hiker-survey/
MSR was the most popular brand with its Pocket Rocket taking 42% of the vote.  It weighs 2.6 oz (without the fuel) and retails for $44.95 at REI.

Honorable mention goes to Jet Boil which was the stove of choice for 13% of respondents.  The Flash weighs 13.1 oz and sales for $109.95.  On average, hikers went four days between resupply and purchased food in town much more often than using food drops.

Water Filter
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/top-stoves-and-filters-the-2019-appalachian-trail-thru-hiker-survey/
The most popular filter (77%) was the Sawyer Squeeze.  The idea is to put dirty water into the 32 oz bag provided (or a SmartWater water bottle which is also common) and then screw on the filter in place of a cap.  You then invert and squeeze the bag (or bottle) to push water through the filter into your mouth or another bottle.  It does not work by gravity alone without squeezing.  It weighs 3 ounces and cost $36.95.

It was not mentioned in the survey review, but the group I have been hiking with is very fond of the GravityWorks 2.0L Water Filter from Platypus (9.1 oz,  $89.95).  You put the dirty water in a bag and then hang it from a tree.  No pumping or squeezing required. 

Sleeping Bag
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/top-sleeping-bags-pads-2019-appalachian-trail-hiker-survey/
NOBOs had bags with an average rating of 35 degrees while for SOBOs, it was 20 degrees.  75% of the hikers preferred an inflatable pad while most of the rest used a foam pad.  For the bag itself, Enlightened Equipment was the brand of choice and the Revelation being the favorite (12%).  It was 19.18 oz and sells for $280.

Footwear
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/top-footwear-appalachian-trail-2019-thru-hiker-survey/
Trail runners are far and away preferred over traditional boots with ankle support.  Some say that hiking without ankle support builds up your ankle strength over time making them less necessary.
38% selected an Altra shoe and most of those were the Lone Peak.  A pair weighs 1.5 oz and will set you back $120.

On average, thru-hikers went through four pairs.

Summary

Getting all the items would cost just over $1,300 and weigh 6.7 lbs.

Item	Brand	Model	oz	cost
Backpack	Osprey	Exos	43	$ 222.00
Tent	Zpacks	Zpacks Duplex	19	$ 599.00
Stove	MSR	Pocket Rocket	2.6	$ 44.95
Filter	Sawyer	Sawyer Squeeze	3	$ 36.95
Sleeing Bag	Enlightened Equipment	Revelation	19.18	$ 280.00
Footwear	Altra	Lone Peak	21	$ 120.00
		TOTAL	107.78	$ 1,302.90

General Info
https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/2019-hiker-survey-general-information/
86% were NOBOs with most of those starting between early March to mid April.  The average pace was about 15 miles a day. Of the 365 in the survey, 70% made it 2000 miles or more.

Distance Traveled	Percent
-500	11 %
501-1000	6.9 %
1001-1500	5.8 %
1501-2000	5.5 %
2000+	70.8 %

All About That Curve

On February 28, 2020, Drew Harris tweeted a graphic with two bell curves.  One with protective measures and one without. 

Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH@drewaharris

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent.

1,568

1:47 AM - Feb 28, 2020

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1,092 people are talking about this

On March 11, the World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a global pandemic. By then, the "Flatten the Curve" had become a meme and slogan that soon became ubiquitous.  

FastCompany as a detailed history of the meme including one of the most popular animations of it.  In order to flatten the curve, protective measures had to be taken.  This included washing of hands, use of a face mask, and of course "social distancing" which meant keeping at least six feet away from each other.  It soon became a guessing game as to when we would hit the peak of the curve and start down the other side.  Just like kids in a long car ride, we were all asking "Are we there yet?"  The New York Times was one of many sites tracking and displaying the daily numbers.  Their visualization seemed to be the most "bell-like" which is why it is used here. 

As of April 3, Mainland China (in the center) was the only country to have recovered to a pre-pandemic case count.

source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/world/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries.html

The curve could be monitored daily at a global, national, or state level.  By April 18, the World, US, and Georgia appeared to be very close to their peak.  Bell curves are enticing because they suggest predictability.  Reality, however, cannot always be predicted.  In spite of this, I wanted to see when we would be close to zero (according to the bell curve).  I found a way to use PowerPoint to make the curve. Using that, I was able to stretch the curve until it mostly matched the first half of the slope.  With the caveats that it may be years before we see 0 cases, it is not likely symmetrical, and life does not always follow the script, here is my unscientific prediction.  

World

United States

Georgia

As it turns out, (caveats accepted) we should be on the other side by early May. Insert statement here about keeping protective measures in place past the peak to prevent a relapse.  Early May is also the time frame many much smarter officials have come up with.  

Just after putting this post together, I found out that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) had already done the math (I knew someone had) and were the ones providing officials with projections.  Their graphs focused on deaths instead of total cases, so I did not show it here, but they did have actual data for download that included many more measures.  Using what they called "allbed_mean", I used Excel to come with these two curves (data past April 17 is projected).

The IHME further projected that, for Georgia: 

"After June 15, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size."

____________________________________________________________

The original article (above) was from Apr 19.  Below are the latest updates from May 8.

First, from the New York Times

Then, from the  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
with actual to the left of the red line and projected to the right of the red line

Pack Sizes

When my youngest son was about 4, I was in the market for a new backpack. In those days, my thinking was that if big was good, the bigger was better.  I envisioned myself going on treks 7 days at a time with no resupplies.  With this in mind, I was proud to purchase the Kelty Red Cloud 6400 (Big Red). When I bought it, my son could literally ft inside of it.  He is now in his twenties and that is no longer a good idea.  Neither, it seems, is getting the biggest pack you can just because you can. One of the properties of a gas is that it will expand to fill its container.  This is also true of packing.  If you have enough space, you will find something to fill it with.  This led to me giving up trail comfort in favor of camp comfort which is not always a wise exchange.  I used to think that the strange looks I got was because folks were impressed with the behemoth on my back.  Age has taught me that the look was actually more like "Wow. What an idiot.".  This is especially true of thru-hikers that I would see on the Appalachian Trail.   The pack has been good to me, but 20 years of carrying more that any sensible person would has taken its toll on Big Red.

I am now in the market for a replacement, so I am planning to downsize (it would be hard not to).  Packs sizes are often measured by volume using either cubic inches or liters.  No one measures packs by quarts or gallons, but I thought it would be useful in the chart below to give an idea of how much they hold.  Conversions are rounded to the nearest integer.

Bag Type	Cubic Inches	Liters	Gallons	Quarts
Drawstring/Cinch Bag	693	11	3	12
School Bookbag	1343	22	6	23
Weekend	2746	45	12	48
Multiday	3967	65	17	69
Extended Trip	4577	75	20	79
Big Red	6400	105	28	111

It seems reasonable that anyone thru-hiking the AT might have a good idea what a good pack size should be.  Here is what a survey revealed from hikers that did that in 2019.

Thru-hikers packs had an average (mean) capacity of 52 liters, but anything between about 43 and 61 liters was common. Thru-hiker pack capacities ranged from 25 to 80 liters.
The top three most common sizes were 55, 60, and 65.

I will post back here after I make my final choice, but I am pretty sure it will be less that 105 liters.

edit: I decided to go with the Osprey Aether AG 70.  At 70 liters, it is no thru-hiker pack, but it is closer to it than it is to Big Red.

To condemn or accept

This past Sunday I heard from two churches I am associated with give seemingly opposing views on the recent gender transition of a public figure.  At "Church A" the pastor stood behind the pulpit and waved and pointed his finger toward the congregation condemning the public praise of such a vulgar announcement.  This, we were told, is yet another example of the Sodom like culture our country as descended into.  Only by rejecting such deviant behavior could our country have any chance at a promising future.  "Church B" posted on their Facebook page that the public figure would be welcome at their church.  Church B is a community church that follows the relevant movement and bills themselves as a "church for people that don't do church".

Both churches are from a Protestant background and both are reading the same Bible, so who's right and who's wrong?  For the sake of argument, let's assume the Bible is the divine word of God meant to direct us toward God and provide the best way to live a God honoring life which is the goal of congregants of both churches.  Those points could be debated, but for the sake of this discussion, let's take them as fact.  Another concept I will defer to discussion elsewhere is using the term 'homosexuality' to cover all aspects of the LGBT community.  For simplicity, I will include them all together for this discussion, but I acknowledge that each part of the alphabet soup is it's own group.

Let's look at Church A's position first.  The  Old Testament is pretty clear.

Leviticus 18:22 - Do not lie with a man as one lies with a woman; that is detestable.

Leviticus 20:13 - If a man lies with a man as one lies with a woman, both of them have done what is detestable. They must be put to death; their blood will be on their own heads.

You will hear some say that they Old Testament has lots of rules and laws that we no longer find convenient to follow.  Many see the New Testament as a replacement that supersedes the Old Testament.  If  you were to ignore Matthew 5:17-18 (which is not recommended), there are still plenty of New Testament prohibitions.  Here are the most common:

Mark 10:6-9 - 6 "But at the beginning of creation God 'made them male and female.' 7 'For this reason a man will leave his father and mother and be united to his wife, 8 and the two will become one flesh.' So they are no longer two, but one. 9 Therefore what God has joined together, let man not separate."

Romans 1:26-28 - 26 Because of this, God gave them over to shameful lusts. Even their women exchanged natural relations for unnatural ones. 27 In the same way the men also abandoned natural relations with women and were inflamed with lust for one another. Men committed indecent acts with other men, and received in themselves the due penalty for their perversion. 28 Furthermore, since they did not think it worthwhile to retain the knowledge of God, he gave them over to a depraved mind, to do what ought not to be done.

1 Corinthians 6:9-11 - 9 Do you not know that the wicked will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor male prostitutes nor homosexual offenders 10 nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God. 11 And that is what some of you were. But you were washed, you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of our God.

1 Corinthians 7:2 - But since there is so much immorality, each man should have his own wife, and each woman her own husband.

1 Timothy 1:8-11 - 8 We know that the law is good if one uses it properly. 9 We also know that law is made not for the righteous but for lawbreakers and rebels, the ungodly and sinful, the unholy and irreligious; for those who kill their fathers or mothers, for murderers, 10 for adulterers and perverts, for slave traders and liars and perjurers--and for whatever else is contrary to the sound doctrine 11 that conforms to the glorious gospel of the blessed God, which he entrusted to me.

Jude 1:5-8 - 5 Though you already know all this, I want to remind you that the Lord delivered his people out of Egypt, but later destroyed those who did not believe. 6 And the angels who did not keep their positions of authority but abandoned their own home--these he has kept in darkness, bound with everlasting chains for judgment on the great Day. 7 In a similar way, Sodom and Gomorrah and the surrounding towns gave themselves up to sexual immorality and perversion. They serve as an example of those who suffer the punishment of eternal fire. 8 In the very same way, these dreamers pollute their own bodies, reject authority and slander celestial beings.

It's pretty clear from these verses that the New Testament as well as the Old condemn homosexuality.  God does not prohibit things at random but rather for our own protection.  Considering these verses and the culture in which we now live, one can not help but be reminded of two other verses:  

 Judges 21:25 - “In those days Israel had no king; all the people did whatever seemed right in their own eyes.”

Isaiah 5:20  - “Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.”

Billy Graham once said “We have changed our moral code to fit our behavior instead of changing our behavior to harmonize with our moral code. [...] But right is right even if nobody is right, and wrong is wrong even if everybody is wrong. God does not change the moral law to suit our behavior.”

Based on the above, it is easy to see where Church A is coming from.

Now let's look at Church B's position.  Consider the following New Testament verses:

Matthew 6:15 - But if you do not forgive men their sins, your Father will not forgive your sins.

Matthew 7:1 - Judge not, that ye be not judged.

Matthew 9:13 - Then he added, "Now go and learn the meaning of this Scripture: 'I want you to show mercy, not offer sacrifices.' For I have come to call not those who think they are righteous, but those who know they are sinners."

Mark 12:29-31 - 29 “The most important one,” answered Jesus, “is this: ‘Hear, O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one. 30 Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength.’ 31 The second is this: ‘Love your neighbor as yourself.’There is no commandment greater than these.”

John 8:7 - And as they continued to ask him, he stood up and said to them, “Let him who is without sin among you be the first to throw a stone at her.”

Romans 3:10 - As it is written: There is no one righteous, not even one.

Romans 3:23 - For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;

James 4:12 - There is only one Lawgiver and Judge, the one who is able to save and destroy. But you--who are you to judge your neighbor?

It would seem from these verses that, like Church B, we should accept everyone with open arms.

So which is it?  The Bible tells us in no uncertain terms that homosexuality is a sin.  It is equally adamant that we are to love more so than judge our neighbor.

Is it possible that both churches might be right?  Looking at all of the verses above and indeed the Bible as a whole, it seems to me that four points emerge.

• There is a such a thing a "sin" which is defined as violating God's law.
• We all sin.
• God hates sin.
• God loves us in spite of our sin.

To reconcile His hate of sin, and His love for us, God sent Jesus to die on the cross to forgive us of our sin.  This forgiveness is available to us all if we will but accept it by confessing our sins and acknowledge Jesus as Lord and strive to follow after Him.

Since God has forgiven us, we should not only turn from sin and turn toward God, but we should also speak the truth in love (Ephesians 4:15) while also being slow to judge (Matthew 18:21-35).  The phrase "hate the sin, but love the sinner" gets lots of ridicule sometimes, but I believe it is an accurate portrayal of God's love toward us.  I believe anyone that tries to paint God as "all love" or "all judgement" is only painting half the picture. He is both. 

While I do believe homosexuality is a sin and thus wrong, I also know that I myself have sinned many times and am no more righteous that anyone else.  We cannot attract others to God by screaming and yelling or by pointing our fingers.  Only by attempting to mirror the love of Jesus will we attract others to God and He alone can convict them of their sin and help them to turn from it.

The Average Running Pace

When one first starts running or walking, just finishing a certain distance is an accomplishment.  At some point, however, most runners will eventually want to finish the same distance in a given time … and then beat that time.  This paper looks at four races (5K, 10K, Half Marathon, and Marathon) to determine what an average running pace is. The data for this came from four races in Atlanta, GA

5K - 3.1 miles - 9/22/2016 - KP Corporate Run/Walk

http://www.kpcorporaterunwalk.com/5k-runwalk/results/

http://www.kpcorporaterunwalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/2016-Overall-Finish-List.pdf

10K - 6.2 miles - 7/4/2015 - AJC Peachtree Road Race

https://www.atlantatrackclub.org/participant-information-results

https://www.trackshackresults.com/peachtree/results/2015/ptresults.php?Link=10&Type=2&Div=C&Ind=0

Half-Marathon - 13.1 miles - 3/20/2016 - Publix Georgia Marathon & Half Marathon

https://www.atlantatrackclub.org/2016-publix-georgia

https://results.chronotrack.com/event/results/event/event-12972

Marathon - 26.2 miles - 3/19/2017 - Publix Georgia Marathon & Half Marathon

https://www.atlantatrackclub.org/2017-publix-georgia-marathon-half-marathon

https://results.chronotrack.com/event/results/event/event-20420

For this study, the participant count includes all participants whereas runner count only includes those who finished with a  15 minute/mile pace or better.  It is acknowledge that a 5K in South Florida will have a different pace than a Marathon up Pike's Peak.  In Atlanta, GA, the terrain is moderate with some rolling hills and all four races where in the same general area.  With this terrain, it would be hard classify anything slower than 15:00 as a "run".

Every runner has aspirations of beating their own time or achieving a Personal Record (PR).

Some runners additionally have a competitive spirit and want to be “above average”.

Average Pace For Each Distance

	3.1	6.2	13.1	26.2	AVG
AVG	0:10:58	0:10:47	0:10:17	0:11:02	0:10:46

Note: The average of the averages is 10:46.

Being above average does not mean that a runner was in the fastest 50% .

Consider these 10 finish times for a 1 mile race

Place	Pace
1	5:00
2	5:30
3	6:00
4	6:30
5	7:00
6	7:30
7	10:00
8	11:00
9	14:00
10	15:00
AVG	8:45

The average is 8:45, but to be in the top 50%, the runner needs a time of 7:00 or better.

Average 50% Pace For Each Distance

	3.1	6.2	13.1	26.2	AVG
AVG 50%	0:10:55	0:10:41	0:10:03	0:10:57	0:10:39

 Note: The average 50% pace is 10:39

As a runner advances from one distance to the next, one might expect the pace to slow.  This was not always the case.  Using the same races, there were 482 runners that ran that ran a 5K and then later ran a 10K.  There were 190 runners that ran a half marathon followed the next year by a marathon.  There were only a very few that ran a 10K followed by a half marathon, so their results are not shown here.

In most cases the pace difference between two races was 3:00 or less.