On February 28, 2020, Drew Harris tweeted a graphic with two bell curves. One with protective measures and one without.
Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent.
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On March 11, the World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a global pandemic. By then, the "Flatten the Curve" had become a meme and slogan that soon became ubiquitous.
FastCompany as a detailed history of the meme including one of the most popular animations of it. In order to flatten the curve, protective measures had to be taken. This included washing of hands, use of a face mask, and of course "social distancing" which meant keeping at least six feet away from each other. It soon became a guessing game as to when we would hit the peak of the curve and start down the other side. Just like kids in a long car ride, we were all asking "Are we there yet?" The New York Times was one of many sites tracking and displaying the daily numbers. Their visualization seemed to be the most "bell-like" which is why it is used here.
As of April 3, Mainland China (in the center) was the only country to have recovered to a pre-pandemic case count.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/world/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries.html
The curve could be monitored daily at a global, national, or state level. By April 18, the World, US, and Georgia appeared to be very close to their peak. Bell curves are enticing because they suggest predictability. Reality, however, cannot always be predicted. In spite of this, I wanted to see when we would be close to zero (according to the bell curve). I found a way to use PowerPoint to make the curve. Using that, I was able to stretch the curve until it mostly matched the first half of the slope. With the caveats that it may be years before we see 0 cases, it is not likely symmetrical, and life does not always follow the script, here is my unscientific prediction.
World
United States
Georgia
As it turns out, (caveats accepted) we should be on the other side by early May. Insert statement here about keeping protective measures in place past the peak to prevent a relapse. Early May is also the time frame many much smarter officials have come up with.
Just after putting this post together, I found out that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) had already done the math (I knew someone had) and were the ones providing officials with projections. Their graphs focused on deaths instead of total cases, so I did not show it here, but they did have actual data for download that included many more measures. Using what they called "allbed_mean", I used Excel to come with these two curves (data past April 17 is projected).
The IHME further projected that, for Georgia:
"After June 15, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size."
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The original article (above) was from Apr 19. Below are the latest updates from May 8.
First, from the New York Times
Then, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
with actual to the left of the red line and projected to the right of the red line
Just now caught this, but after working with you I trust your predictions more than most!!
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